Industry news and views from Panacea and our partners.
US_
Jupiter: US may set the tone for 2022, but solutions set the pace
Rhys Petheram, Head of Environmental solutions and Jon Wallace, Fund Manager, Environmental Solutions explain why the outlook for environmental investing is dependent on the US, and uncover six key themes set to define 2022.
Aviva Investors: Ask the Fund Manager, Sunil Krishnan - Ep 79. Is the Fed chair more important than the President?
Jerome Powell is here to stay for another 4-year term as Fed Chair. This is arguably one of the most powerful economic jobs in the world, but does he have the power to curb the current high levels of inflation?
M&G: A close look at the US labour market
In 2020, the impact of the pandemic on the US labour market was unprecedented, with the unemployment rate in the country hitting 14.8% at its peak and the number of unemployed soaring, from some 7 million to over 23 million.
Jupiter: Macro Monitor: The Feds dilemma
Jupiters Fixed Income Alternatives team discuss the potent mixture of low growth and high inflation, which continues to animate global bond markets.
US jobs numbers cannot push USD higher.... yet
Say what you want about the Bank of England, and thats what Im paid to do, but they are hammering home the message in the press that borrowing costs may increase sooner rather than later.
Aviva Investors: Taming of the few
Regulatory authorities around the world are targeting the big US tech giants. However, while investors need to keep a watchful eye on developments, Big Techs stranglehold and influence on numerous economic sectors will be hard to loosen.
Jupiter Merlin Weekly: Has the Fed moved the monetary goalposts?
The Merlin team discuss the Federal Reserves shift in policy, political arguments in the US and EU, and ask what happens beyond the Covid economic recovery.
Columbia Threadneedle: Covid-19 index: when might life return to normal?
As one of the worlds largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as well as other measures of normality such as entertainment and leisure, high street shopping, and schools reopening. The result is an index that measures progress toward a post-pandemic world.
Jupiter Merlin Weekly: Biden breaks new ground on Covid vaccine patent suspension
Bidens plan to suspend Covid vaccine patents is laudable on humanitarian and pragmatic grounds, but may set a far-reaching precedent. The Merlin team give their view.
Aviva Investors: Home bias - The rise and rise of economic nationalism
The new US president is prepared to carry the torch for a shrinking band of globalists, but the growing trend of economic nationalism will prove hard to reverse.
T. Rowe Price: Why secular growth has enduring appeal
The value stocks in the large?cap Russell 1000 Index have outperformed their growth counterparts in recent months, but this near?term regime shift does not dim our conviction in high?quality companies that we believe can compound in value over the long run by growing their revenue and cash flows.
Rathbones In the KNOW blog: America blooms
America is opening up along with the spring blossoms, and a strong summer of spending seems to be on the way. The rebound in fortunes has helped the S&P 500 reach new highs which, as chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth notes, go hand in hand with rising yields.
T. Rowe Price: Cooling US? Europe trade tensions could lead to bigger deal
The US and European Union (EU) announced a four month suspension of all tariffs related to the long running dispute about unfair government support for leading aerospace companies Airbus and Boeing, signaling President Joe Bidens desire to realign trade relations. This pause came on the heels of a similar agreement between the US and the UK.
Columbia Threadneedle: Relationships are not easy: US equities versus Treasuries
As the economy recovers and cyclical stocks begin to outperform, how should we think about the connection between equities and US Treasury yields?
T. Rowe Price: Interview with Katie Deal, US political analyst
Katie discusses the key focus points of Bidens administration and implications for investors
Rathbones In the KNOW blog: Will the dollar lose its perch?
As you may have seen in your clients portfolios, the US dollar has been tottering a little lately.
T. Rowe Price: US election results appear market-friendly
Although President Donald Trump has not conceded the race and has mounted legal challenges to contest key state results, the 2020 US elections appear to have produced a presidential win for Democrat Joe Biden.
T. Rowe Price: Biden focus on regulation could have broad impact
The balance of power between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate will shape President?elect Joe Bidens legislative agenda, determining the extent to which he can push through tax increases and influencing the size and scope of spending associated with any pandemic relief and recovery packages.
Baillie Gifford: Darling Ingredients
What does the White Houses china crockery have in common with Mercedes car seats, animal feed and biodiesel?
M&G TALKS: US Election Result
Please join us on 5 November at 15:00 GMT when Jonathan Willcocks, Global Head of Distribution, discusses the US election result and the potential impact on markets with fund managers Randeep Somel and Tristan Hanson.
Rathbones: Biden versus Trump
With a deeply polarised US electorate about to choose its next President, Rathbones latest report considers the policies of the two candidates and their market implications.
Columbia Threadneedle: Biden his time until victory?
Our fixed income team provide their weekly snapshot of market events.
Quilter Cheviot: Diary of a Fund Manager - Washington Affairs
In this weeks Diary thoughts about the approaching US presidential election, back to the flu pandemic in 1918 as a model for now and the power of zero.
Baillie Gifford: Manager Insights American Fund
Ben James gives an update on the positioning and activity of the Baillie Gifford American Fund.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments: Why measuring the output gap supports our asset allocation
Changes in our high frequency measure of the US output gap track accurately changes in the Fed Funds rate. This relationship highlights that the market currently prices a continuation of downward inflationary pressures, over and above what the Fed expects. This supports our asset allocation of remaining underweight government bonds and overweight lower-duration, higher-yielding assets such as credit.
Aviva Investors: Medicine, politics and investing: Tensions abound
With the issue of healthcare likely to take centre stage in the 2020 US elections, investors will be watching closely to understand the impact of changes to the industry.
Invesco: US: Facing a slowdown or recession?
The dreaded R word is garnering more attention with the US Federal Reserve in dovish mode and bond markets in a state of flux following the recent inversion of the yield curve. Is the economic data ringing any alarm bells?
Baillie Gifford: What if China breaks away?
Should strained relations between the US and China become a full-blown rift, it could hurt global trade and stymie investors. Read this and more in the latest issue of Enlightenment, the funds magazine from Baillie Gifford.
M&G: Broadening trade wars: could Trump take aim at the EU, again?
As the US and China continue their game of tug-of-war in trade negotiations, could Trump turn his attention to the EU? Investment specialist, Kirsty Clark, discusses the prospect of a trade war between the US and EU?
Invesco: What does the inverted US yield curve tell us?
The US yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. What is the yield curves success in predicting previous US recessions? Is the inversion consistent with US data? What other reasons could be causing the inversion? Fund Manager, Stuart Edwards gives his views on the recent inversion of the yield curve.
Rathbones In the KNOW blog: Time to break up?
The honeymoon for US tech giants may be over, but is it time to break up? Rathbones Chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth discusses the intensifying antitrust scrutiny of Americas tech titans and how their future may rest on political machinations.
Legg Mason: Soft patch or slowdown?
While we could be in the late stages of the current bull market, we see stocks grinding higher in the coming months through increased volatility.
Legg Mason: Tariffs, Pullbacks and Fundamentals
As the state of growth becomes harder to gauge, small-cap fundamentals are likely to matter more and more.
Legg Mason: The Feds Inflation Problem
Market and consumer inflation expectations are plumbing new lows. Brandywine research analyst Alberto Boquin explains why this is so, in particular why a dovish outlook and high employment in the US mean the Feds 2% inflation target is more likely.
Legg Mason: Small Caps: The Outlook in 4 Charts
Steve Lipper, senior investment strategist at Royce, makes the case for why U.S. cyclical small cap stocks are due a rebound.
Legg Mason: Assessing the Health Care Selloff
Why ClearBridge believes recent headwinds have been largely sentiment driven and that strong fundamentals remain intact across key health care subsectors.
Legg Mason: Still Room to Run
Non-performing asset figures for US corporations remains at low levels, while interest rates remain low and profit margins are high. ClearBridge says this means there is still more room for expansion in the current economic cycle.
M&G: Is the US bull market long in the tooth?
This March marks the 10-year anniversary of the longest bull market in history that has been ploughing on in the US since early March 2009. In this latest article, Ritu Vohora discusses the shift focus of the Fed, inflation, debt and current opportunities with our fund managers across equities, fixed income and multi asset.
Rathbones In the KNOW blog: Beats me
Nothing hurts more than expecting a cheque yet receiving a bill. Unfortunately, this is happening to millions of Americans right now, explains chief investment officer Julian Chillingworth.
Legg Mason: Fed outlook: wait-and-see
We expect that the Fed will eventually adopt a wait-and-see strategy this year, with at most one more rate hike in 2019.